New Ceasefire Will Bring a Real Peace to Ukraine?


After discussing for 17 hours in Minsk, all parties agreed on a ceasefire aiming to end the bloodshed fighting in the eastern part of Ukraine starting from Sunday. Both sides agreed to withdraw all heavy weapons and create demilitarized zone.

However, there are many things left to be addressed, especially issue of wide autonomy demanded by people in the eastern Ukraine, and there will be further talks on that issue . Currently, Russian backed separatist groups are insisting for more autonomy, but Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko denies it. He claims his government can only offer some decentralization of power to the Eastern part and Ukraine still prefers unitary state.

I still believe the new agreement, which is the outcome of recent talks in Belarus, is not a real and comprehensive document bringing 10 months conflict to an end. It will not last long as parties expect. Pro-Russian rebels have not yet received what they demand. I think that the Ukraine crisis would be solved as long as Ukraine gives more concession to rebels and follows three important steps.
First, Ukraine has to offer more autonomy to the east. The willingness of Ukraine government to provide some power decentralizations will help nothing.

Second, Ukraine government should give up its intention to join European Union. Ukraine and Russia have long standing relationship, and seeking for membership of European Union is really provocative. Furthermore, it is believed Ukraine is not destined to join European Union. It will be a must for Ukraine to keep itself neutral and out of western sphere of influence.

Third, Ukraine should stop seeking for chance to join NATO. Since Ukraine nullified the law dropping its non aligned principle last year, Russia has hardly sought to stir up the conflict, warning Ukraine not to move towards joining NATO. Generally speaking, what Russian leaders concern the most is the accession of Ukraine to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and losing Ukraine to US led-military alliance's hand will allow them( NATO members) to build up military power at Russia's front door, creating threats against Russia's security.

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