Why Trump’s abandonment of Afghanistan is a mistake

During US presidential debates last year, Afghanistan was only mentioned once by the  nominees, and it seems the new administration has no clear policy and strategy to address the decade-long conflict still raging there. 

There is major concern by Afghans that the administration of President Donald Trump will completely withdraw from Afghanistan and end its unconditional support for the Kabul government. His “America First” rhetoric generally creates more doubts about US retreat from major conflicts worldwide. 

In a recent open letter, written by Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid, he urged Mr. Trump to leave Afghanistan. The letter, according to Al Jazeera, accuses the US of having achieved nothing in 15 years of war in Afghanistan, warning that peace can only be achieved when all  foreign forces have  completely pulled out.

Mujahid stated that "the responsibility to bring to an end this war also rests on your [Trump's] shoulders.”

Twelve years after former president George Bush launched his “war on terror” by invading Afghanistan to topple the Taliban following the attacks on 9/11/2001, former President Barack Obama announced the end of large-scale American action in the country. He indicated that US troops would leave the country soon, and initiated their withdrawal, but this did nothing to end the Taliban insurgency. 

-Abandoning Afghanistan is not a wise strategy

It is absolutely an unwise policy for the US to abandon its ongoing military role in Afghanistan, despite the massive financial cost it accrues. According to Congressional Research Service’s 2014 report, the U.S spent $686 billion for Operation Enduring Freedom. 

There are multiple security implications both for internal security in Afghanistan, as well as internationally if the US were to fully withdraw with the fragile nature of security and stability in the country. The increasingly global scourge of ISIS has also added a new dimension to security, with the group already this year showing signs of gaining ground in several areas of Afghanistan, even as its bases in Syria and Iraq are severely weakened by continued attack from multiple countries, including the US.

Without the US’s active and close engagement, the situation in Afghanistan will only worsen; transforming it once again into the safe haven for terrorist groups that enticed the senior Al-Qaeda leadership to hide out there 15 years ago. This will not just affect Afghanistan’s stability, but also that of its neighbors. As has been the case before to such destructive effect, the country could once again become the base from which to launch attacks across the world.

In the face of such threats, senior Afghani officials have spoken of their belief that the US will not fully pull out any time soon.  Omar Samad, former ambassador to France and Canada, recently said that such a move would be a terrible strategic move, contrary to US interest.” He told Russian state-media that it would spell “trouble for the Afghan government, [and embolden] the Taliban and other terror groups in and around Afghanistan to take more drastic measures, producing regional instability.”

What should Trump Administration do to help save Afghanistan?

Instead of pulling out, the Trump administration should pursue a policy of engagement with Afghanistan which can address key weaknesses.

The U.S needs to continue its robust support for ongoing reforms of governance in the country-- one of which is to eradicate the deeply rooted corruption which has flourished over decades, but has flourished in the turmoil of the war. Last year, President Ashraf Ghani, who has stated his main policy is to fight against corruption, acknowledged in the Commonwealth Anti-corruption Conference in London last May that rampant corruption needed to be eradicated.

The country was ranked 166 out of 176 countries in a recent corruption perception index, but received praise for the government’s progress.

Such efforts should be supported by the US, wrote senior The Asia Foundation official John Brandon in November, noting that “the US under Trump’s presidency must continue to support economic and development measures that increase Afghanistan’s national capacity to effectively govern and to provide for its own security.”

Without strong, robust economic growth and development, Afghanistan can’t move toward achieving peace and stability. There is no major driving force for economic growth, with the country still hugely dependent on foreign aid. The Trump administration and other development partners therefore must continue to provide financial assistance to the country, meanwhile endeavoring to direct them to effectively utilize resources in order to diversify the economy. 

  

Furthermore, the Trump administration also needs to spare more effort to help Afghanistan’s government improve their military capacity, ensuring that they are capable and ready to new security challenges.  That can be done through further providing more military assistance and sustaining military training for Afghan military officials.   The US has up to 9,000 soldiers stationed in Afghanistan, and they should carry on with their advisory role to help and support the ongoing training until Afghan security forces are well-prepared. 

Mr. Trump should also continue to support the process of “national peace talks and reconciliation” between the Taliban and the Afghan government by convincing regional powers such as India and Russia to actively take part in the process. India should play an important role in preserving peace and stability in the region since it has shared interest in the future of Afghanistan as well. However, Indian move so far has been cautious   and it appears reluctant to play a larger role in assisting the peace process due to its traditional principle of non-interference and intention not to anger its adversary Pakistan.  

Despite Russia’s own checkered history in the country – the last Russian troops withdrew in 1989, following nine years of war – some experts believe that joint peace building efforts between the US and Russia could lead to the normalization of relations between the two countries.

Alexey Malashenko, from the Carnegie Moscow Center, told Germany’s DW, that "if "Islamic State" maintains its strategy of being active in Afghanistan in the long run, then the country could become an area where Moscow and Washington could work together in the fight against terrorism.”

With Mr. Trump’s apparent closeness with the Russian government, this might mark the start the restoration of trust between the US and Russia that could have far larger consequences in global conflicts.